If you are dealt a big hand (Ace-Ace or King-King) in No Limit Texas Holdem, you'd usually make a big bet to force out weaker hands and eliminate their chance of staying in to possibly pick up a better hand. If you are sitting "on the button" (last to act), you can pick up a good pile of chips that way.
There are situations where you won't do that. For example, if a major opponent is bullying the table by regularly making very large bets and your bet comes before theirs, you may "limp in" with a very small bet, pretending to have a weaker hand. If that wealthy player then again decides to slam down a big scary bet, you can come back at them wth everything you have. They may have been bluffing and immediately fold. If not, they may have something like "K-Q" or "4-4" and your chances of winning are excellent.
Now let's look at Microsoft and Apple. Obviously Microsoft is the "big stack" here and they definitely bully the table. But I have suggested before that Apple potentially has a very big hand now that they have switched to Intel: virtualization may be a big pair of Aces indeed.
Microsoft regularly splashes down big doses of intimdation. The "big bet" looming on the horizon now is the regularly delayed Vista OS, which Microsoft now says will be out late this year (2006).
What if Apple actually already has those Aces? Imagine that virtualization is already in the kernel, ready to be turned on by a patch download at a moments notice. Should Apple play its hand now? Or should they wait until Microsoft finally does push Vista out the door?
Imagine Microsoft announcing Vista on the morning of December 15th. That afternon, Apple turns on the virtualization patch and releases a barrage of ads that have been waiting on the sidelines for months. The ads show Intel Macs switching between OS X and Windows and Linux. They show a smiling office worker cutting and pasting from OS X to her Windows desktop. The music swells, and "Intel Inside" takes on a whole new meaning. Everybody forgets about Vista and Steve Ballmer has another apoplectic fit.
Or maybe it's not virtualization (Apple keeps insisting they aren't interested). Maybe it's just everything Vista has and more. But still slamming it down AFTER Vista.
Fantasy? Maybe. Or maybe just hardball poker.
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Mon Mar 20 13:26:10 2006: Subject: TonyLawrence
By the way, Red Hat played its virtualization hand early: http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/software/story/0,10801,109549,00.html
and perhaps too early: http://au.sys-con.com/read/195491.htm
Mon Mar 20 20:13:44 2006: Subject: sidestep the little pieces of history repeating anonymous
OS/2 was capable of running Windows software. Where is OS/2 now? I don't see any long-term benefits for Apple being able to run Windows API on OS X.
Tue Mar 21 00:35:25 2006: Subject: TonyLawrence
NOT Windows API. Windows, Linux and every other 86 OS through VM's.
It just astonishes me that so many people just can't see this..
Look: Why is RedHat putting Xen into their Linux? Why is VMWare giving away VMware server? Why did Intel put VM instructions into their processors? You have to be really blind not to see what's coming.
Wed Mar 22 10:53:17 2006: Subject: drag
Na. I don't think that Apple is that smart. I think it's suprising how few people get 'virtualization'. The only people realy paying close attention to it seems be in the enterprise, but as it matures that should change.
What I see likely is some third party application providing this virtualization and it would end up about the same. Probably Vmware.
However there is some chance. Apple is going to release it's next operating system.. 10.5 later this year, early next year? That should coincide nicely with the widespread deployments of Intel's proccessors with the VT extensions. This should allow people to use Windows applications in XP with native speed, but be using it in OS X enviroment.
I envision it quite a bit like 'Classic' mode. You would run everything on Xen. You would have remote desktop to OS X. Newer versions of remote desktop support features like drag-n-drop and file transfers between OSes.. So it should intregrate rather nicely into the OS X desktop. But I don't think that Apple will allow this because they are too paraniod about piracy, and having it open enough to run on Xen (no special DRM) then it would be open enough to easily pirate.
However Vista has recently been delayed again. Microsoft says that it will release it to large volume customers on time.. but everybody will have to way until January. They are blaming it on the OEMs, but I think that is bullcrap since they still would be able to release it to general public as retail boxed sets.. But I am told that the version released to the VLA's will be identical to what normal end-users will get in January.. So wtf do I know?
All I know is that everyday that Vista gets delayed.. the higher the expectations of MS-fans get and the more advantage Linux/Apple gets. It's going to take at least 2 years for Vista to get majority desktop market share so basicly Vista isn't going to be competing against Linux and OS X now.. it will be competing against Linux and OS X from 2 to 3 years from now.
So I suppose it's a bit like poker..
Is the MS delay going to be 'it'. Is it realy going to make early 2007?
Is Apple smart enough too avoid to much DRM and will take advantage of virtualization?
Is Linux going to be good enough to gain acceptance on the business desktop in the next couple years.. and how do Linux and OS X's high compatability with software benifit one another?
Is Microsoft's push into 'enterprise computing' going to pay off.. Can a software-only company compete against a 'solution provider' like IBM on IBM's favorite turf? (a market they basicly created and dominated since the 1960's)
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/mar2006/tc20060317_714264.htm
All sorts of questions.
I think that unfortunately that Microsoft has bought off Apple with it's own 'Ace in the Hole'.
That is Microsoft Office.
http://www.microsoft.com/mac/default.aspx?pid=macIntelQA
There is NO other alternative for MS Office for Apple. Apple is lost without it.. It doesnt' even have OpenOffice.org, except as a sort of weird offshoot from OO.org 1.x series that is already obsolete even as it sits in beta. Even if it was as up to date as the Windows version then it's not going to be acceptable for most of Apple's end users.
I think that it's likely that Apple will accept it's nitch status as a 'high end' desktop system and avoid doing things that would be considured 'too competative' in exchange for Microsoft to support them with future releases. After all even though they base a lot of the OS on BSD and GNU software Apple is basicly a propriatory software company which it's software and formfactor is the only thing that seperates them from the massive amount of low cost PC's cranked out by folks like HP and Dell. They are more likely to loose to Linux then Microsoft is.
Anyways.. that's my latest theory. Probably BS.
But keep this in mind.. Originally Apple seemed to be a likely supporter of that 'Open Document format' stuff. (with it's fabled 'Pages' and such) But when the 'Open Document Format alliance' was formed. Apple is no were to be found.
http://www.odfalliance.org/about.html
In response to this Microsoft has formed it's own Open XML Developer Group who do you suppose it's one of it's 'founding members'?
http://openxmldeveloper.org/archive/2006/03/18/OpenXmlDeveloperGroup.aspx
Oh well.
Sun Mar 26 13:10:09 2006: Subject: TonyLawrence
Mac Rumors says virtualization is coming with Leopard: http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2006/03/20060324092148.shtml
Though it does looks like Leopard will beat Vista to market, so Apple may not be planning a check-raise.
Funny thing is that Microsoft may be helping Apple do this. They'll live to regret it, I think.
Tue May 16 03:02:18 2006: Subject: its all about steve anonymous
I do not know anyone who has out thought him in he past. Apple is the only company MS cant beat, and put behind it. To think that he is not going to come up with an idea, is damn crazy. To think that MS will come with one is equally crazy, its not gates history to create from nothing. Jobs is simply smarter than gates. After all we all get bad hands, its he outcome that matters. I know of only one of 2 fathers of the pc, steve jobs, and this is not a dumb guy.
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